Supplier Business Report Paints Bright Picture of DCT Future
Dual clutch transmission fitment is set to climb steadily to around 8 million units a year by 2015, according to analysts IHS Automotive; this represents almost 9 percent of worldwide light vehicle transmission production. Quoting these estimates and others that predict a more bullish 10 percent market share for DCT-equipped vehicles by 2014, Supplier Business in its 2010 Transmission Suppliers Report cites the move to dual clutch systems as one of the three main streams of passenger car transmission development.
The Supplier Business report focuses strongly on the growing role of the transmission in helping define the character of the vehicle and the identity of the brand. However, this development leads the researchers to two further observations: firstly, the irony that the center of brand-building attention should be the transmission, a component whose task is to remain unobtrusive and to maximize efficiency; and, secondly, that automakers are allowing this increasingly important avenue of differentiation to be outsourced to a handful of key tier one suppliers.
“On the one hand allowing technology specialists such as ZF Friedrichshafen, Getrag and BorgWarner to lead the development of new, and potentially risky developments, limits the risk attributable to the OEM,” observe the report’s authors. “This avoids costly forays into technology ‘dead ends’ and means that an OEM can wait and identify the winning technology. On the other hand, this approach means that opportunities for the transmission to be a key differentiating factor for a given vehicle are limited.”
Global transmission forecast by type
Source: IHS Automotive
The report identifies the key drivers which it believes will push transmission design and the transmission market to significant changes in the coming years:
- Downsized engines and turbocharging
- Incorporation of electrification and hybridization
- Maximizing efficiency by automating gearshifts
- The need to improve convenience and shifting comfort
- Saving weight and package volume to improve underbonnet clearances for pedestrian safety
- Reducing cost
Citing figures computed by ZF, Supplier Business notes that improvements to the vehicle driveline have the potential to cut fuel consumption by 15 percent. This compares with just 10 percent for weight reduction and 11 percent for improved aerodynamics; engine changes, on the other hand, could achieve consumption reductions of over 40 percent.
Some of these changes can already be observed taking place: there is a strong trend towards six speed manual transmissions in Europe, forecast to reach a 50 percent market share by 2015, and a strong shift in larger cars towards automatic transmissions with as many as eight speeds.
But though the issue of C02 emissions and climate change is a global one, different regions will lean towards different solutions, prompted by customer preference and, to a significant extent, by the types of manufacturing capacity already in existence.
No big change is anticipated in North America’s overwhelming (80 percent plus) preference for planetary automatics; CO2-reduction moves in this region will center on improving the efficiency of existing types and an increase in the number of ratios.
Asia
Japan, where dual clutch applications have tended to focus on expensive niche high performance models such as the Nissan GT-R and Mitsubishi Lancer Evo, will continue to refine its CVT systems, which have high consumer acceptance; a step change in effectiveness is promised with the advent of dual-range CVTs where a two-speed planetary sub-transmission allows a much wider spread of ratios and more economical cruising.
India is likely to witness a migration away from the still-standard four-speed manual as car ownership spreads; with many new groups of people taking up driving for the first time, Supplier Business anticipates interest in low-cost automatics, especially AMTs, that simplify the process of learning to drive.
Similar trends may also become evident in the world’s largest car market, China, as the dominant manual transmission cedes ground to automatics; however, with no domestic producers of planetary automatics until Geely’s purchase of DST in Australia last year, the types of automatic in China are likely to shift from the current imported – and pricey –transmissions. Likely to be very significant here is the 12-company consortium forged around BorgWarner to build dual clutch transmissions in volume. This, forecasts the report, will lead to DCT overtaking CVT transmission types in market penetration as early as 2012, propelled by its triple advantages of AT levels of gear change quality, fuel economy better than a manual and the capacity to handle much higher torque throughputs than CVTs.
European transmission fitment forecast
Source: IHS Automotive
Europe
The report reveals how the combination of small engines and high fuel prices has highlighted the relatively poor fuel efficiency of cars fitted with automatic transmissions; the popularity of diesel cars, with their historically poorer power to weight ratios, has also served to discourage the choice of automatics – most drivers felt the benefit in convenience was not worth the extra cost.
Looking ahead, Supplier Business sees a trend towards six speed manuals and automatics with up to eight speeds, but does not predict general customer acceptance for AMTs outside the niches for entry-level cars and certain commercial vehicles. CVTs are expected to decline further, having been dropped by Ford and GM and soon to disappear from Audi’s models: the latest generation of seven-speed dry-clutch DCTs, with their aggressive up-shifting strategies, achieve even better fuel economy than traditional manual transmissions, say the authors.
In the report’s view, however, DCTs could face a significant challenge from the Zeroshift transmission which, though it has not yet been taken up by a volume automaker, has many of the easy-shifting advantages of DCT but is much lower in cost and can be manufactured in conventional facilities. Zersohift is in effect a rethinking of the synchromesh system, allowing shifts to be performed speedily, smoothly and with very little actuation force. The gearbox architecture remains the same as a conventional manual.
Key development
The most significant development as far as DCT is concerned, says the report, is the new transmission family launched by Fiat Powertrain Technologies (FPT). The key advance is that both the manual and the DCT transmissions share the same architecture and are assembled on the same production line. This, say the report’s authors, opens up the opportunity to attain economy of scale benefits to significantly lower the cost base: indeed, it is likely that within a few years DCT and AMT costs will converge considerably. The implication is that both will benefit and that the price premium over a standard manual transmission will begin to shrink.
| Transmission | Production costs compared to MT |
|---|---|
| 6 Speed AT | 170% |
| CVT | 170% |
| DCT | 180% |
| 5 Speed MT | 100% |
| 6 Speed MT | 110% |
| Zeroshift (5-Speed AMT) | 125% |
| Source: Knibb Gormezano & Partners – Transmission Trends in passenger cars & light commercial vehicles | |
But while an improved cost position for DCTs will be welcomed by all in Europe – especially by automakers wanting a handy cut in their corporate CO2 emissions in time for the 2014 penalties deadline – the effect in North America may be more muted. Ford will be featuring its Getrag-Ford dry DCT on its Fiesta and Focus, but GM’s plans are not yet clear and Chrysler, now controlled by Fiat, is committed to building ZF’s eight-speed planetary automatic and has not stated whether it will be using FPT’s C635 DCT on models built at its US plants.
Story Filed: 11/17/2010
By Tony Lewin, managing editor DCTfacts.com
SupplierBusiness: Reports