Global Transmission Trends
Although the shift towards CO2 and emissions-related vehicle taxation systems is accelerating the trend towards advanced transmissions and the electrification of the driveline, the bright future for dual clutch transmissions will be region-specific. Overall, DCTs will expand their global market share to 6 or 7 percent by 2015, equating to 4.5 to 5 million units. These are among the conclusions drawn by Frost & Sullivan Automotive and Transportation global power train program manager Kaushik Madhavan during a recent webcast looking at emerging developments in worldwide transmission system fitment.
Overall, fuel-friendly systems such as DCT and automated manual transmissions (AMTs) are on a strong growth path. CVTs are also set to benefit to a lesser extent, buoyed up by continuing demand in Japan where consumers favor small cars with automatic transmissions. By 2015, the horizon for his projections, Madhavan puts the likely Japanese CVT market share at 37 percent, making it the most-favored transmission type. Stepped automatics (ATs) will be next at 30 percent, with manuals declining to 27 percent, and DCTs still relatively insignificant at 5 percent.
“DCT on the Japanese domestic market will be confined to niche high performance sports cars such as the Nissan GT-R,” says Madhavan. “Most of the Japanese production of DCT will be exported; local demand is expected to remain low through to 2015.”
China will witness a dramatic surge in the popularity of AMTs, according to Madhavan. This is due to strong promotion from domestic automakers, especially GM, and a “quantum leap” in comfort at very little on-cost compared with a manual transmission. This could propel the AMT share to almost a quarter of the market, the highest of any major region. VW’s alliance with Borg Warner will give DCT a foothold, but the main transmission choice will still be manual, at over half of all sales.
Korea will witness a strong uptake in DCTs as dominant local producers Hyundai and Kia step up volume of their in-house system. DCTs could reach as high as 7 percent penetration as they take market share away from the current mainstays – stepped ATs and manuals.
With North American automakers recovering from the financial crisis, there will be little budget available for investment in new transmission systems, says Madhavan. Despite the recent passing of CO2 emissions regulations in the U.S., stepped automatics will remain by far the dominant transmission type at over 80 percent of all sales. Manuals and DCTs will continue to be confined to imported brands, mainly European, while CVTs will be featured on a growing number of hybrids.
It is in Europe, where legislation will soon mandate a 120 g/km fleet CO2 emissions average, that DCT will enjoy its biggest boost, propelled to a double-digit market share thanks to its combination of strong fuel economy, comfort, and driver appeal. Volkswagen Group and Ford will be the main OEM investors in the technology, but will be joined by Fiat, Renault and PSA. “Demand for driver control, along with the need to reduce fuel consumption and CO2, is driving the demand for DCTs in Europe,” explains Madhavan. As with other regions, DCT’s growth will come mainly at the expense of manuals, and improvements in low-cost AMTs will earn them a 7 percent share by 2015.
Despite the dynamism of DCT in Europe, Madhavan predicts that investment in transmission development is set to take a back seat as automakers struggle to perfect advanced engine technologies, such as hybrids, capable of meeting the more stringent emissions and CO2 regulations of the coming decade. This will strengthen the importance of OEM-supplier alliances where investment and responsibility are shared – as exemplified, perhaps, by the recent announcement of the strategic partnership between Renault-Nissan and Daimler.
Source : Frost & Sullivan
From a technical point of view, notes Madhavan, AMTs will be able to increase their global penetration thanks to the incorporation of the actuator module within the transmission casing rather than as an add-on element on the outside. This results in significant space saving, making the transmission less bulky and, therefore, easier to package in small A- and B-segment cars where this type of transmission solution is attractive to consumers.
The inherent fuel saving potential of DCT makes it the ideal transmission for hybridization, says Madhavan. Hybridization can be expected to offer a fuel saving of up to 20 percent, making it the ideal choice for the small and medium car segments. The limited number of European players in the CVT market, by contrast, is expected to make hybrids using CVT inherently expensive and, therefore, unlikely.
Madhavan also notes that, in the last three years, automakers have begun to turn their attention to the reduction of NVH from the complete vehicle. The special software and tools brought in by automakers for this purpose is also capable of diagnosing and remedying transmission NVH issues such as gear whine. “NVH tools are also capable of suggesting small micro-modifications to characteristics such as the manufacturing tolerances of the transmission components. These are cost-effective and easily implemented, and result in a significant improvement in the NVH perceived by the consumer. The goals of transmission NVH improvement typically involve the reduction of gear mesh rattle and transmission whine.”
Bringing the focus back to dual clutch transmissions, Madhavan anticipates automakers will invest significantly in the development of dry-clutch DCTs, especially for the compact segments, because of their overall efficiency. Volkswagen will be the only large OEM to retain wet-clutch DCTs. In terms of figures, Frost & Sullivan expects European wet-clutch DCT sales of 0.5 million units in 2009 to remain largely static until 2015, while sales of dry-clutch DCTs will expand dramatically from 0.2 million to around 1.5 million units over the same period.
Low-cost systems such as Ricardo’s eAMT and eDCT will be dry-clutch based, and will save cost and weight by simplifying components and combining functions. Frost & Sullivan estimates that the eDCT will give cost savings of 22 to 25 percent over the Volkswagen DQ250, and provide fuel economy benefits of 6 to 8 percent. This system and a parallel project at Getrag will have the capacity to further expand the market for AMT and DCT, says Madhavan.
Finally, in its analysis of global trends in the number of speeds in vehicle transmissions, Frost & Sullivan predicts that by 2015 North America will have the highest share of seven- and eight-speed transmissions, thanks to the preponderance of stepped automatics in the region and the need to keep fuel consumption in check. Europe will be dominated by six-speed transmissions of all types – stepped automatics, manuals and DCTs – while China will be largely six and seven speed. Korea will remain the only major developed market to cling to a significant proportion of four-speed transmissions, estimated at 35 percent by 2015.
By way of conclusion, Madhavan expects that the need for fuel economy and emissions reduction will ensure DCTs remain a key transmission technology for the future. Costs may still be high, but with expanding volumes the price premium is expected to drop. The hybridization of vehicles will give a further boost to well-matched technologies such as DCT as pressure on CO2 emissions intensifies.
Story Filed: 5/03/2010
By Tony Lewin, managing editor DCTfacts.com