DCT's Future Promise
Premier transmission supplier Getrag has booked orders for the supply of half a million DCTs by 2010 and two million a year by 2014.
BorgWarner, which supplies clutch systems, says it will quadruple DCT module sales to 2.3 million a year within five years.
Carmakers already fitting dual clutch transmissions to their models include Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, Bugatti, BMW, Ferrari, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford and Volvo. Many more introductions are in the pipeline.
Consultancy CSM Worldwide estimates that DCT-equipped cars will account for almost one in 11 new models sold in Europe by 2014, edging out the conventional automatic as the first choice alternative to the dominant manual transmission.
Extrapolating this trend it is possible to foresee a situation where, pressured by CO2 targets and the need to reduce manufacturing complexity, the majority of automakers do away with today'’s choice of automatic or manual transmissions. Instead, the complete model line would be fitted with the same DCT hardware, allowing customers to decide whether they wanted to shift gears or drive automatically.
The advantages to the automaker would be great: a single design, with a single supplier, simplified assembly, improved logistics, reduced stock costs and simplified ordering at the dealer level.
Conceivably, the only models not fitted with a DCT might be basic entry level designs, where low cost is vital. This could mean annual volumes in the tens of millions for DCTs.